Is AI overhyped? Depends who you ask

Transcript

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• 0:00 What do the top 5,000 people in AIC that
• 0:03 the rest of us don't?
• 0:05 Ask 10 people what AI can do and you'll
• 0:08 get 10 different answers. Some say it's
• 0:10 overhyped. Others say it's changing
• 0:13 everything.
• 0:14 What if they're both right because
• 0:16 they're seeing completely different
• 0:17 things?
• 0:19 In April, AI researcher Andrej Karpathy
• 0:22 described this as two groups of people
• 0:24 talking past each other. Six months
• 0:26 later, he came back with an update. The
• 0:29 gap is widening. It isn't two groups
• 0:32 anymore. It's a funnel.
• 0:34 Start at the top. By his rough napkin
• 0:37 math, around 6 billion people, about 3/4
• 0:40 of humanity, have barely touched an AI
• 0:43 model at all. For most of the world,
• 0:45 this revolution hasn't arrived yet.
• 0:48 One level down are 1 to 2 billion casual
• 0:51 users. They open a free chatbot now and
• 0:53 then to look something up or polish a
• 0:55 paragraph. To them, it's a slightly
• 0:58 better search engine. Useful, but
• 1:01 nothing earth-shattering.
• 1:02 Narrower still are about 20 million
• 1:05 people, roughly 0.2%,
• 1:07 who use the most powerful models every
• 1:09 day for coding and math. They've watched
• 1:12 an AI agent build or translate an entire
• 1:15 app from a single prompt. Work that once
• 1:18 took weeks now takes an afternoon.
• 1:21 And at the very tip are about 5,000
• 1:23 people on the entire planet with inside
• 1:26 access to systems that aren't public
• 1:28 yet. They're directing swarms of AI
• 1:30 agents on problems that would take top
• 1:32 experts years. Karpathy says even human
• 1:36 review is starting to fall behind.
• 1:38 Why is the experience so uneven?
• 1:41 AI improves fastest where answers can be
• 1:44 checked, where there's plenty of data,
• 1:46 and where the work is valuable. Coding
• 1:48 and math hit all three, so the people
• 1:50 working in those fields see the leap
• 1:52 first. Karpathy calls this the weirdness
• 1:55 of the moment. Most of the world hasn't
• 1:58 used these tools. Most professionals see
• 2:00 a modest boost and a tiny group is
• 2:03 watching the curve go vertical, all at
• 2:06 the same time.
• 2:08 So, the next time someone tells you what
• 2:09 AI can or can't do, ask yourself which
• 2:13 part of the funnel they're standing in
• 2:15 and where you are.